I recently wrote an article emphasising the failure of democracy, especially in Africa. Democracy is still the best form of government. The problem is that political actors worldwide have learned to manipulate it. It will only get worse. As the next presidential election in Nigeria draws nearer, there is a likelihood that President Bola Ahmed Tinubu might be literally contesting against himself. This sounds ridiculous, but it is already unfolding.
Nigeria operates a multi-party system on paper. Most elections are dominated by two major political parties, namely the All Progressives Congress and the People’s Democratic Party. Oftentimes, what we call the opposition party is formed by aggrieved members of the ruling party. Apparently, they are still one family. They only become opposition when it is perceived that the spoils of power were not evenly shared. At least 18 out of the 21 political parties are not real contenders but pretenders. They function as fractional political platforms, often used as special purpose vehicles by the dominant parties.
Tinubu understands the fragility of the party system in Nigeria and is using it to his advantage. He appears to be drawing lessons from leaders like Paul Kagame, Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, Robert Mugabe, Yoweri Museveni, Paul Biya and Vladimir Putin, leaders often accused of suppressing opposition to stay in power. In 2018, Sisi’s government cracked down on political opponents using the machinery of the state. The moment you throw your hat in the ring, scrutiny intensifies, and in some cases, opponents are arrested or disqualified. Sisi eventually contested against Moussa Mostafa Moussa, a relatively unknown candidate who stood little chance. He won in a landslide, although the election was widely criticised by Western governments and observers. During Mugabe’s time, his opponent Morgan Tsvangirai was arrested, publicly humiliated, and in 2007, beaten by the police alongside his supporters.
Since Tinubu places significant importance on validation from the Western world, he appears to be pursuing a more subtle approach to weakening the opposition. It is quiet and methodical, designed to appear normal and procedural. The latest rumour is that the current Chairman of the Independent National Electoral Commission, Professor Joash Amupitan, is a supporter of the ruling party. Social media posts on X in 2023 were said to have exposed his support for Tinubu. I am not surprised. A shrewd politician like Tinubu is unlikely to nominate someone who cannot align with his interests.
It is also argued that Tinubu has used the FCT Minister, Nyesom Wike, to weaken the former main opposition party, the PDP. Does it not raise questions that a member of the opposition, who once helped stabilise the party after the Ali Modu Sheriff crisis, is now a major force within the ruling structure while still retaining his opposition membership? The problems within the PDP have become so complex that some members have abandoned the party and regrouped elsewhere. Today, Wike is reportedly building residences for judges in Abuja, a move some interpret as strategic positioning in case election results are challenged in court.
Tinubu has also been accused of persuading state governors with incentives to join the APC. His party now has over 30 governors. A few others have not formally joined but are aligned with him. The crisis within the African Democratic Congress has also been linked to powerful political interests. Former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, in a recent interview, alleged that a factional leader of the party has received protection, vehicles, and housing while undermining the party’s progress. INEC’s stance on the ADC crisis has further raised concerns about neutrality.
Some prominent figures in the ADC, including former Kaduna State governor Nasir El-Rufai and former Attorney General Abubakar Malami, are currently facing corruption related cases. This has been widely interpreted in some quarters as an attempt to pressure opposition figures.
Previously, the National Assembly, dominated by Tinubu’s allies, appeared reluctant to pass proposals mandating real time transmission of election results by INEC. I have not lived as long as Methuselah in the Bible, but I have rarely seen an incumbent appear this concerned about opposition forces. It may look calm in public, but behind the scenes, it seems far more restless.
Back to the crux of the matter, if the ADC collapses, who will realistically contest against Tinubu? Those numerous smaller political parties that cannot win even the most localised contests? If that happens, 2027 may effectively become Tinubu contesting against himself. This could turn out to be one of the least competitive presidential elections in Nigeria’s history.
