Tinubu is unarguably the most self-destruct president in history. It could be due to the highly controversial circumstances through which he emerged as president that makes him so desperate to please the West. Firstly, he removed subsidy and floated the naira. Two policies that are highly detrimental to Nigeria’s economy but fervently promoted by the West and its institutions like IMF and WTO. The little credibility he had among Nigerians tanked while he became a darling to the Bretonwood.
As if that wasn’t enough, he saw the coup in Niger republic as another opportunity to endear himself even more to the West. Without applying common sense, Tinubu unilaterally rallied others in ECOWAS to give ultimatum to the new military rulers of Niger. Once again, the West, including United States, France and UK cheered him on. The situation in Ukraine couldn’t even act as warning why it is dangerous for any allow itself become a tool to the imperialists.
Here are reasons why Tinubu’s misadventure in Niger republic is most likely going to be a disaster for him:
1. It is extremely difficult to invade a large desert country and win the locals in warfare; Examples abound, such as Russia against the Mujahideen of Afghanistan. America against Taliban of Afghanistan. America in Somalia. These are superpowers yet they failed miserably, how much more poor nations like Nigeria?
2. The people of Niger republic are behind the military rulers; There is overwhelming support by the masses of Niger in support of their military. So, they are ready to enlist in the army, form human sheilds and even sabotage the invading army.
3. Hausas and Fulanis see Niger as their brothers; similar to point 2 above, the Muslim North of Nigeria is likely to be in solidarity with Niger people and in extension, their military rulers. So, aside seeing a scenario whereby many of them may enlist to fight on the side of Niger against Nigeria and ECOMOG forces, sentiments will also rise against the Yoruba president who waged war against ‘brothers’.
The sentiments may trickle into our own military and the hunter will eventually become the victim.
4. ECOWAS has been divided into two; in trying to rally other West African countries into waging war against Niger, Tinubu only succeeded in dividing the Subregion. Almost all the sahel nations are now backing the military rulers, including Mali and Burkina Faso. Also, Guinea, a coastal nation is in support of the military rulers. The implications here is that arms will flow easily from Libya and Sudan. Import of goods will also flow from Guinea to Niger republic, thereby rubbishing the so-called ECOWAS sanctions.
5. It’s going to be an international war; the military rulers in Niger have embraced Russia. So, it’s a matter of time before the Wagner group intervenes as well as military hardware arriving from Russia. So, what happens when the war drags on? Costing Nigeria both in men and resources? Won’t Boko Haram & other terrorist groups even seize the opportunity to unleash mayhem?
By a concerned Nigerian
