By Dave L. M.
On the run up to the 2019 polls, PDP are engrossed in looking for a candidate or tactics that may divide Buhari’s northern votes. This has made them to neglect their southern strongholds and flanks allowing APC to penetrate them deeply.
By Dave L. M.
On the run up to the 2019 polls, PDP are engrossed in looking for a candidate or tactics that may divide Buhari’s northern votes. This has made them to neglect their southern strongholds and flanks allowing APC to penetrate them deeply.
None of those vying for the party’s ticket can even win their states. The only northerners that have a chance of shocking Buhari is the sultan and the emir of kano. Yaradua the only northerner that defeated Buhari had more electoral advantages than Buhari. No other candidate has that now.
The mass following Buhari had wasnt cultivated in a day but years. Atiku, Tambuwal, Saraki, Dankwambo are only popular among the elites.
APC is currently stronger in the south than PDP in the north. APC controls 8 sourhern states while PDP controls 2 northern states barring the defections of Sokoto, Kwara and Benue Governors. APC has a foothold in all the southeast and south south states. Even Bayelsa and Enugu where there are weak,they are still strong as compared to PDP in Buchi, Borno or Yobe. Buhari will likely get a significant proportion of southern votes.
Rivers: PDP will win Rivers as usual but not with their usual margin. I see APC getting up to 300,000 votes in Rivers mainly from rivers south east district controlled by senator Abe. The combo of Amaechi/Abe/Amachree may floor Wike. Many of those that rig for PDP in Rivers have been detained or now in APC.
Cross River: the Govetnor is PDP but pro Buhari and will not campaign against Buhari but focus on his reelection. The senator representing central Cross River is now in APC and very popular. He will deliver that zone to APC. I see Buhari getting up to 100k votes. Most of the bigwigs in the state are in APC.
Delta:the presence of ogboru in apc plus senator agege will give buhari a lot of urhobo votes. Emami will deliver warri votes with APC making sure Anioma, Ijaw and Isoko votes are not inflated. I see APC getting close to 300k votes here with PDP not getting more than a million.
Edo: with Adams as chairman, I see APC winning here outrightly or narrowly. APC votes in Edo north will be inflated, PDP will win the central dominated by the Ishans with APC narrowly winning the south. I see APC getting 300k with PDP 200k.
Akwa ibom: Many bigwigs here that usually delivered for PDP are now in APC. The alliance of nsim Aekere/Umanah will give PDP a headache. Udom is friendly with Buhari and will not campaign much against him. The oron people of Akwa Ibom south are pro APC plus a lot of Ibibios. I see Buhari polling over 200,000 with PDP polling 800,000.
Bayelsa: This is where APC are weakest but may pull a shocker with Seriake’s lukewarm attitude. I see Timipre inflating his brass LGA figure to give APC at least 20k votes with PDP not getting above 200,000.
Imo: apc will win or lose imo narrowly.rochas is a fighter and plus his senatorial bid,he will match pdp toe to toe. Whoever wins will not do so with more than 100,000 votes with apc guaranteed of getting 25%.
Anambra:obiano is comfortable to apc and averse to pdp.apga may field a candidate to reduce pdp votes. I see Buhari polling over 100k with PDP struggling to get 300,000
Abia: Alex otti will ally with apc and give buhari close to 100,000 votes with PDP not getting more than 300k.
Ebonyi: Umahi is pro Buhari and will subtle campaign for him. I see APC getting more than 50k votes here with PDP still winning.
In summary, APC may get up to 1.5 million votes in SS and over 500,000 in south east. Buhari will win the west narrowly.
I see him getting up to 22 millon with PDP getting close to 14 million.up APC
Dave writes from Lagos
