By: Emmanuel-Francis Nwaolisa Ogomegbunam
Nigeria is slightly complicated for outsiders to understand, it seemingly is always “on the brink”. But if I had a kobo for every time I saw a variant of this sort of headline, proclaiming Nigeria’s imminent demise, I wouldn’t need a Patreon, I’d be yachting in Monaco. Mind you, one dollar is about 3,850 Kobo.
Jokes aside, Nigeria is held together by tenuous threads that strain, but will not break. A direct answer to the question itself is No.
Civil wars aren’t fought in a vacuum, they are driven by a sense of grievance, but sustained only through a source of funding capable of maintaining an “anti-state”, think easily exportable resources, and or foreign sponsors. Anger does not bullets make.
The civil war happened due to the financial independence of the regions, particularly the Eastern region’s possession of crude oil reserves. In the buildup to the war, the then military Head of State, General Yakubu Gowon carved out 12 states out of 3 regions, in the process leaving the Igbo heartland states, nearly shorn of all oil reserves, cut off from the sea and most importantly gave the minorities of the Eastern region, states of their own, and hence a stake in Nigeria. This was on 5 May 1967, on 6 July 1967, the Eastern region Military governor, Colonel Odumegwu Ojukwu declared the Republic of Biafra, claiming the entirety of the defunct Eastern region. The war ensued.
That can no longer happen, the states are all financially reliant on the Federal government, the nation’s electricity is equally centrally controlled. The Federal government is vastly superior to all would be challengers, so the worst case scenario is yet another terror campaign.
So much for failing “to learn the lessons from its horrific civil war”. The problem though, they may have learned too well. Nigeria will carry on for the foreseeable future, teetering, but never quite keeling over.
