past for Nigeria. Umaru Yar’Adua, a northern Muslim professor who became president in 2007, was absent for months, with the government of the time refusing to give details about his condition until he finally died in 2010.
Many see the prolonged absence of another ill and aged leader as a precursor to a power play like the one that followed Yar’Adua’s death.
Presidential candidates are expected to alternate between northern and southern leaders, a key destabilising factor in Nigeria’s politics, which is often dominated by regions, ethnicity and religion. Should Buhari be unable to finish his term, his popular vice-president, Yemi Osinbajo, a Christian from the south-west, would be constitutionally mandated to succeed him. Yet that would only be the starting gun for political tussles.
Meanwhile, the country’s challenges continue to mount. Over three years after they were kidnapped, 113 of the 276 Chibok girls remain missing, along with thousands of others who have also been abducted. Despite progress in suppressing Boko Haram’s occupation of urban territory, the group remains a threat, with attacks in rural areas increasing in the last few months.
The resulting humanitarian crisis in the country’s north-east has worsened over the last two years.
The economy has been in recession for over a year, with the fall in oil prices damaging to Nigeria’s oil-reliant economy. Unemployment has risen and businesses have found it hard to import goods due to tougher foreign exchange rules. The government has made a concerted effort to diversify the economy, making the agriculture sector more productive and profitable. There has also been a mass recovery of looted public funds and new social investment programmes.
Reports of corruption by figures in Buhari’s own government, as well as criticisms of his anti-corruption campaign, have further diminished his support.
