Election Day is still a month away, but more than 700,000 Americans have already voted across at least 30 states. There are signs emerging of the advantage Democrats have in motivating their voters – a trend that’s played out in polling all summer long.
In several states with key Senate or governor races this fall, Democrats make up a larger share of voters requesting ballots so far than they did at this point in 2024.
What early voting data is showing ahead of the 2026 midterms
In Iowa, Democrats have made 67% of ballot requests, up from 54% at this point in 2024. In Pennsylvania, it’s 66%, up from 62%, and in Maine it’s 57%, up from 53%. And according to data from the North Carolina State Board of Elections, 42% of ballot requests are from Democrats, up from 36% at this point two years ago.
It’s worth noting that in all of those states except for Iowa, ballot requests at this point in 2022 were more Democratic than they are now.
The uptick in the share of requests from Democrats would be in line with polling, special election results and primary turnout, all of which have indicated Democrats may be more motivated to vote this November.
On the other hand, it could just be further evidence of Republicans continuing to shift to preferring other forms of voting.
An important caveat: While the fact that a person has voted is generally public information, your ballot itself is secret, so this data can’t tell us how many votes a party or candidate has won. That won’t be known until states start reporting results after the polls close on November 3.
Early voting data also only shows one slice of voters: a slice that is typically older and less Republican than the electorate as a whole.
Early voters are skewing older
Voting patterns have shifted in the last several years as the country has emerged from the Covid-19 pandemic.
As mail voting has fallen from its 2020 highs, voters 65 and older have made up a larger share of people choosing to vote that way, going from 27% of mail voters in 2020 to 31% in 2022 and 37% in 2024, according to CNN Exit Poll data.
That’s not unexpected. Mail voting can be a convenient option for older people who might have trouble getting to the polls. In many states where voters need an excuse to vote by mail, age itself can qualify as a reason to receive a mail-in ballot.
There are early signs that that trend is continuing this year.
In nearly every state for which there is comparable data, voters 65 and older make up a larger share of ballot requests this year than they did at this point in either 2022 or 2024.
