On the surface, the Ogun State All Progressives Congress (APC) appears to be a model of stability. At least, for its optics, Governor Dapo Abiodun recently praised the “orderly conduct” and “peaceful” nature of the party’s ward congresses held across all 20 Local Government Areas, describing the exercise as a reflection of “unity and maturity”. However, beneath this carefully curated facade lies a party in turmoil, deliberately factionalised by a Governor whose dwindling political influence has driven him to employ increasingly desperate divide-and-rule tactics. As the APC attempts to consolidate ahead of the 2027 general elections, Abiodun’s isolationist strategy, marked by the ostracisation of the party’s real power brokers, threatens not only the state’s cohesion but also President Bola Tinubu’s reelection fortunes in the gateway state.
The most telling evidence of Abiodun’s factionalization strategy emerged during a recent strategic stakeholders’ meeting held at the June 12 Cultural Centre, Kuto, Abeokuta. While the Governor surrounded himself with a handpicked crowd, including former governor Chief Olusegun Osoba, the absence of two towering figures was deafening: Senator Ibikunle Amosun and Otunba Gbenga Daniel. This was not a coincidence; it was a calculated slight.
Sources within the party reveal that Abiodun has instituted a new pecking order where loyalty to him, specifically, a bizarre and undemocratic ritual, trumps party membership. Access to party meetings is no longer predicated on one’s contribution to the party’s growth or electoral fortunes, but on possession of a special Aso Ebi (uniform) that serves as a gate pass. Loyalists of Otunba Gbenga Daniel and Senator Ibikunle Amosun were deliberately denied these passes, physically barring them from participating in party affairs. This petty brand of politics reduces a once-progressive party to a private social club, excluding the very men who command the grassroots loyalties that Abiodun lacks.
While Abiodun plays these games, the real political architecture of Ogun State remains firmly outside his control. The Governor’s influence is a hollow shell compared to the entrenched structures of the three senators who genuinely control the geopolitical zones. Despite Abiodun’s posturing, Senator Ibikunle Amosun remains the undisputed leader of Ogun Central. Senator Olamilekan “Yayi” Adeola holds absolute sway over Ogun West. And Otunba Gbenga Daniel, despite being repeatedly sidelined, controls Ogun East by every conceivable margin.
The meter of popularity is clear for anyone willing to look; the President needs the votes these men can mobilise. Between Dapo Abiodun and Otunba Gbenga Daniel, or between Abiodun and Senator Ibikunle Amosun, the latter two bring decades of grassroots structure, loyalty, and electoral value. Abiodun, a Governor who has needed assistance to win two previous elections, offers only division. Yet, rather than court these heavyweights, he has ostracised them from state party functions, leaving the APC in Ogun as a coalition of warring factions held together by the glue of federal patronage rather than genuine unity.
Abiodun’s paranoia is perhaps most evident in his relationship with Senator Yayi. Recognising Yayi’s immense popularity and his likely ambition for 2027, the Governor is playing a dangerous game of public friendship and private sabotage. While pretending to hobnob with the Senator, Dapo Abiodun is working tirelessly to undermine him. The Governor believes, rightly or wrongly, that Yayi is behind the mounting criticism of his administration, and his response has been duplicitous.
In a move that exposes his true intentions, Abiodun is making secret efforts to get former Commissioner GNI to the forefront. Using the backdoor and enlisting the support of the Speaker of the House of Representatives, Abiodun hopes to present GNI to President Tinubu as the “anointed” consensus candidate. The Governor arrived at the burial of Lucia Onabanjo with GNI, sending a clear signal to political watchers that he is using Yayi’s shadow to strike a relevance he cannot achieve on his own merit.
The Governor’s willy games have now splintered even the most basic of party mobilisation units: the women. The struggle for 2027 has led to a proxy war within the women’s wings of the party. On one side is Funmi Efuwape, the Commissioner for Special Duties, who is eyeing the position of Deputy Governor under Senator Yayi. To curry favor with both camps, she floated “Apex Women for APC,” ostensibly promoting both DA and Yayi
However, her efforts have been undercut by Elegbeji, a newly elected House of Representatives member and a close ally of the Governor. Elegbeji sees through the Governor’s heart and mind and has floated an alternative group: “Apex Women for Tinubu/DA.” This faction is telling members that only Dapo Abiodun can dictate who the governorship candidate will be, effectively telling Yayi that his branding and dancing are merely for his personal entertainment. The message is clear: Abiodun wants full control of the party machinery before he opens his cards, and he is willing to split the party vertically to get it.
“What Dapo Abiodun is doing is not just factionalizing the APC; he is setting the stage for a monumental loss in 2027. By excluding Ibikunle Amosun and Gbenga Daniel, he is forcing two of the state’s most effective mobilizers to the sidelines, or worse, into the arms of the opposition. For President Tinubu, this is a disaster. You cannot win Ogun State without the structures of Amosun in the Central and OGD in the East. Abiodun’s ritualistic leadership style and his petty squabbles with Yayi are creating a vacuum that the opposition is already salivating to fill. If the President relies solely on Abiodun’s dwindling influence in Ogun, he is essentially handing the state to the PDP or the Labour Party on a platter. The ward congress ratification might be a victory for Abiodun today, but it is a Pyrrhic victory that guarantees civil war in the party tomorrow,” A political watcher in Ogun State who prefers not to be mentioned.
As the APC moves to ratify the ward congresses and elect executives, most of whom have reportedly sworn ritual oaths of allegiance to Abiodun, the party stands at a precipice. The credibility of the process is punctured beyond repair, and the aftermath promises a protracted internal crisis. Governor Dapo Abiodun may have won the battle for the party secretariat, but he is losing the war for Ogun State. For a Governor whose tenure is ending, the desperate need to control a structure that will outlast him suggests a fear of irrelevance that his actions are making into a self-fulfilling prophecy.
