Filling stations across the country have adjusted the pump price of premium motor spirit (PMS), otherwise known as petrol, with a litre sold at almost N1,000 across the country.
This followed the recent increase in the price of crude oil on the global market, triggered by the escalating Israel-Iran hostilities, with marketing advising Nigerians to brace up for further increases unless there is a de-escalation of the current tension.
Daily Trust reports that since the conflict started, there has been severe damage to critical oil infrastructure, triggering a sharp spike in global oil prices.
As soon as the conflict started, Brent crude increased by 11.71% from $66.45 penultimate Monday to $74.23 after hitting an intraday high of $78.50, the highest since January 27.
Also over the penultimate weekend, U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude finished at $72.98 a barrel, up $4.94, or 7.62%.
Similarly, WTI jumped over 14% to its highest since January 21 at $77.62. WTI climbed 13% to its level a week ago.
Israel and Iranian hostilities have worsened volatilities in the oil and gas sector as investors are on the edge of price instability amidst fear of escalating Middle East conflict.
As of yesterday (Sunday), crude prices have rallied above $77 per barrel, slipping from $79 over the weekend. There are fears of further increases following US President Donald Trump’s decision to strike three nuclear facilities in Iran, even as Iran has vowed retaliation.
Fear of further spike as Iran vows retaliation
Analysts say retaliation from Iran may increase crude prices further.
As the third-largest oil producer in the world, Iran accounts for over 24 percent of the oil in the Middle East and over 10 percent of the global oil.
In a worst case scenario, JP Morgan said it sees oil averaging $60 in 2026, but flagged $120–$130 per barrel as a potential range in the event of worst-case outcomes—namely, military conflict and a closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which one-fifth of global oil flows.
JP Morgan noted that while such escalations could lead to meaningful supply disruption, particularly if Iran’s 2.1 million bpd of exports are cut off, its base case still assumes diplomacy holds.
While increasing prices of crude means more foreign exchange inflows for Nigeria, its flip side is the rise in the price of PMS at the domestic market, with analysts and marketers warning that Nigerians should brace up for more.
Speaking on the rising oil prices, Chief Executive Officer, Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprises (CPPE), Dr. Muda Yusuf explained that while the surge in crude oil price would impact on foreign exchange earnings, oil being the biggest forex earner for the country, “Economies around the world [Nigeria inclusive] would witness a surge in the price of petrol, diesel, jet fuel, gas and related products in the near term. This would have far reaching implications for many economies and businesses.”
He said, “This would even be more impactful if output performance improves. Crude oil price has surged to $75 per barrel, which is about 15% higher than before the outbreak of the Israeli–Iran conflict.
“This development would also positively impact the country’s foreign reserves, ensure better forex liquidity and ultimately the stability of the naira exchange rate.”
