By Daniel Okonkwo
As the war in Ukraine continues to reshape global geopolitics, the country’s vast mineral wealth has emerged as a focal point of negotiations between Western allies. While the United States has played the most prominent role in military aid to Ukraine, European nations—particularly France—are positioning themselves to secure long-term economic and strategic benefits. The question now arises: who truly has a legitimate claim to Ukraine’s mineral resources, and how will these negotiations impact the future of global supply chains, energy security, and defense industries?
The United States has been Ukraine’s single largest donor since the Russian invasion in February 2022, providing approximately $119.7 billion in aid as of 2024. However, when considering all European contributions, the total reaches $138.7 billion, slightly surpassing U.S. aid. The European Union of 27 countries and Europe of 44 countries claims its total support has exceeded $145 billion, with about 35% structured as loans and the rest as direct financial and military aid.
President Donald Trump, in discussions with French President Emmanuel Macron, has repeatedly asserted that the U.S. has shouldered a disproportionate burden in supporting Ukraine. He has claimed that the U.S. has spent over $300 billion, while Europe has contributed around $100 billion, a statement that European leaders dispute.
This disparity in financial commitments raises a crucial question: if the U.S. significantly reduces its funding, will European nations be willing—or even able—to fill the gap? Macron has signaled that Europe must “step up” its defense commitments, but this would require a substantial increase in financial contributions.
The Race for Ukraine’s Mineral Resources. Beyond military support, the battle for Ukraine’s critical mineral wealth has become a defining element of international negotiations. Ukraine possesses significant reserves of lithium, uranium, and rare earth elements, which are essential for:
Green energy transition (batteries, solar panels, and wind turbines)
High-tech manufacturing (semiconductors and electronics)
The demand for these materials has skyrocketed as Western nations seek to reduce dependency on China, which dominates global rare earth supply chains. For the European Union, securing Ukrainian minerals is a matter of strategic autonomy, reducing reliance on both China and the United States.
The U.S. has framed its negotiations with Ukraine around “repayment” for military aid, positioning mineral access as a form of economic compensation for its financial and military support. President Trump has emphasized that Washington should receive priority access to Ukraine’s resources in exchange for its vast contributions.
However, France and the broader European Union are pursuing a different approach. French Defense Minister Sébastien Lecornu confirmed that negotiations with Kyiv have been ongoing for months but clarified that Europe is not seeking repayment in the same transactional manner as the U.S. Instead, France aims for long-term economic and defense cooperation, integrating Ukraine into Europe’s supply chains while reducing dependency on external powers.
President Macron has been a strong proponent of European strategic autonomy, arguing that Europe must take control of its critical resources and not rely solely on American leadership. This strategy aligns with the EU’s broader ambitions to boost its industrial competitiveness and protect itself from geopolitical disruptions and trade restrictions.
Will Europe Get Its Money Back While the U.S. Does Not? A fundamental difference in approach raises another question: will Europe eventually recover its financial investments in Ukraine, while the United States does not?
Since a significant portion of European aid has been structured as loans, EU countries expect to receive repayments over time. In contrast, most of the U.S. contributions have been direct grants, making repayment less likely unless tied to mineral deals or future trade agreements.
If President Trump’s position gains traction, Washington may demand stronger economic concessions from Ukraine, potentially leading to tensions between the U.S. and its European allies over who gets access to Ukraine’s resources.
The battle for Ukraine’s future is no longer just about military aid or territorial integrity—it is increasingly about control over critical resources that will shape the 21st-century economy.
For the U.S., Ukraine represents an opportunity to diversify its mineral supply chains and maintain economic leverage over European allies.
For Europe, Ukraine is a strategic partner that can help the continent achieve greater self-sufficiency in raw materials.
For Ukraine, mineral negotiations are crucial for its post-war reconstruction and economic flexibility.
The Beginning of a New Chapter As negotiations continue, the world is witnessing a major geopolitical realignment driven by military aid, economic power, and resource security. Whether the United States or Europe emerges as the primary beneficiary of Ukraine’s mineral wealth remains uncertain. What is clear, however, is that the outcome of these deals will shape the future of global energy, defense, and industrial policy for decades to come.
This is only the beginning of the story that will define the next phase of Ukraine’s role in global geopolitics.
Daniel Okonkwo is an international human rights advocate with Profile International Human Right Advocate.
