Professor Jibrin Ibrahim, the Friday back page columnist of the Daily Trust, wrote a preview contribution under the title, ‘2017 Trend Analysis and the Contours of Inertia’. In an Internet group we belong to, the respected law professor, Awwal Yadudu, took up Jibrin on his projection that the Shia issue could represent the major security problem in 2017 and on the value of projections generally, concluding with a reference to the book by A. Stanislav, Social Science as Sorcery (1972), described by Wikipedia as an indictment of “pretentious nebulous verbosity which is endemic in modern social sciences”.
Except for the rude reminder represented by Donald Trump’s victory to the effect that all received wisdom should be interrogated, Stanislav’s book here is really anachronistic. Projections and trend analyses are widely-used and perfectly legitimate tools employed by all policy and decision makers in governance and the economy. Looking ahead is risky but rewarding if you get at least some of the projections right. The material below was what I published around this time last year, representing my understanding of key issues that the nation will deal with in 2016. I will leave you to judge, with the benefits of hindsight, if it represents pretentious nebulous verbosity. Before you do that please join me to pray for the soul of Malam Sanusi Abubakar, an economist who soiled his boots in the best traditions of an activist. May Allah grant him Aljanna.
Happy New Year.
2016: A watch list
This year will define the basic character of the administration of President Muhammadu Buhari and highlight opportunities and limitations that will challenge the administration and the nation. In this first, full working year of President Buhari, a number of major issues should be kept under watch.
- The economy
The Nigerian economy will be severely challenged in 2016. The dramatic fall in crude prices and uncertainties around attracting increased foreign investment will slow down growth. Plugging major leakages in revenue collection could improve available funds, but institutions involved in raising revenues need to be strengthened and their capacities improved. The pro-poor provisions in the 2016 budget are ambitious and bold, but their successful implementation will be predicated on quality conceptualisation, planning and sustainability. Major fiscal and monetary policy decisions will represent areas of intense interest, as all social segments will feel the effects of an economy that will go through a difficult period. APC and PDP legislators will test their strengths on budget debates, and the legislature as a whole may fight against some of its provisions which affect them.
- Security
The Boko Haram insurgency is damaged, but not crippled to a point where it will not continue to threaten population. There are questions about the credibility of the military’s successes, principally because of conflicting narratives over the presence of insurgents in Sambisa forest, in towns and villages as well as cells in many areas that can strike with guns or suicide bombs. The captive Chibok girls will continue to haunt the fight against Boko Haram, and managing two million IDPs will be a major challenge for the administration.
The investigation of former militant leaders will trigger a resurgence of violent activity in the Niger Delta. Increased military presence in the area will pitch the militants and the military in direct confrontations under an administration determined to stamp its authority against violence. The Biafra agitation will be tested in terms of its support and capacity to take on the Nigerian state, with the ongoing trials of its leaders. The Shiite movement in the North will continue to be a source of stress and tension, and the manner the state handles the detention and trial of its leader will be a major factor in determining future Shiite-government relations. Managing national security in the context of increasingly limited resources will be a major problem for the administration.
- Fighting corruption
The administration enjoys popular support in its fight against corruption. Spectacular revelations about massive theft of public funds in many sectors of the economy suggest that many high profile individuals, including some who are pillars of the ruling party investigated and prosecuted. There are concerns over the degree to which the legislature will support the President in this ever-expanding campaign, with many legislators likely to be fingered, or have their cases re-opened. There are also legitimate concerns regarding the integrity and capacity of the judiciary to process possibly hundreds of cases. The possibility of the state being stonewalled by a weak and compromised judiciary and powerful interests with considerable mileage in avoiding penalties is real. Nigerians will be frustrated at the pace of investigations and trials, and there is a genuine possibility that too much of the administration’s time and energy will be devoted to pursuing corruption cases at the expense of imaginative and productive policies that should rebuild the economy and strengthen institutions of governance.
- Public institutions
The Buhari administration inherited weak and compromised public institutions that are vital to re-engineering the economy, plugging leakages and reducing corruption. It will need to radically improve basic policing institutions to turn the tide against crime and internal security challenges. The public service has been very badly damaged by the previous administration, and it will need an extensive review of its basic philosophy, operations and leadership to bring it up to the required level as the key institution in protecting public interest and serving as the foundation of good governance.
- Governance and politics
The real character of the All Progressives Congress (APC) will begin to show as the spoils of victory are distributed and the real business of running the country becomes the major focus. Key elements in the APC, such as the character and persona of President Buhari, the often-conflicting interests of very powerful office-holders who hold varied opinions over the real meaning of the ‘change’ mantra, the chieftains from parties who led and submitted to the merger, and Nigerians who expect dramatic and quality changes in the conditions of their lives will clash or reinforce each other this year. The manner President Buhari relates with the legislature, particularly the Senate, will be an important factor in the degree to which he succeeds in pushing through critical legislation, or is frustrated in the fight against corruption.
Disgruntled party chieftains can be ignored only up to a point. The lessons from the damage done to the defeated PDP by its members who defected with much of its assets will need to be carefully read and understood. Intra-party disputes will become more pronounced, and will be made worse unless the party is made strong and relevant by all political office holders at all levels. The administration will need to pay close attention to managing regional and religious threats, and its disposition to the elite with capacities for mischief or improving popular support will be tested. Ambitious politicians with an eye on 2019 could divert attention and energy from creating synergy in policies and programmes at all levels of government.
- Peoples Democratic Party (PDP)
The PDP is unlikely to recover from its many and varied challenges any time soon. Its internal schisms and the large numbers of its present and former leaders who are being mentioned in scams of all types will deplete its capacity to re-invent itself. It is unlikely to benefit from disputes within APC, or provide an effective opposition outside the legislature. Nonetheless, its members in the National Assembly are a vital asset, and they could exploit intra-APC disputes to damage the administration’s plans and programmes.
- President Jonathan
The noose is increasingly tightening around President Jonathan’s neck, with more and more revelations about scams and outright thefts that took place under his watch. It is a matter of time before his personal role and others, such as Dr. Okonjo-Iweala, Alison-Maduekwe and other key ministers and officials are more closely scrutinised. President Buhari seems bent on extending the frontiers of enquiry into the management and abuse of public funds and other assets. It is unlikely that President Jonathan and former senior ministers will evade complicity in some of them. President Buhari may have to raise the profile of the fight against corruption and the inmates in EFCC holding cells by nodding towards the investigation and possible trial of the former President and key ministers.
- The Buhari factor
Nigerians will become better acquainted with the persona and character of President Buhari. So far he has come across as determined and focused. He has been the face and voice of his administration, and has shown a personal trait of intolerance against corruption and threats to national security. In 2016, Nigerians will see whether he plans to yield some space to his Vice President and some of his ministers with solid accomplishments, to complement his image of strong personal integrity and unbending will. His temperament and disposition will be tested by the capacity of corrupt people to fight back, to be frustrated by compromised or weak institutions, or by the imperative of making compromises where they become necessary. President Buhari will retain wide popular support as he fights corruption, but in 2016, he also has to lay the foundations of solid socio-economic achievements. These will be his asset as an elite steeped in a tradition of pillage and plunder fight him back.
Courtesy: Hakeem Baba-Ahmed
