By Kingsley S. V
Any keen watcher of political developments in recent time must be wondering why Saraki and his co-conspirators have not still defected from APC despite numerous indications to that effect. We have heard and read many ultimatums and threats coming from the camp of these fair-weather politicians about their impending defection to PDP with no or little action. It’s on this basis I decided to analyze the situation and come to the conclusion that these politicians may not defect after all.
By Kingsley S. V
Any keen watcher of political developments in recent time must be wondering why Saraki and his co-conspirators have not still defected from APC despite numerous indications to that effect. We have heard and read many ultimatums and threats coming from the camp of these fair-weather politicians about their impending defection to PDP with no or little action. It’s on this basis I decided to analyze the situation and come to the conclusion that these politicians may not defect after all.
The first question for a defecting politician or camp is “what do I/we stand to gain if I/we defect?
In answering this question, each and every member of the r-APC/n-PDP must have compared their current situation to what is possible in PDP or other party they choose to defect to. For example, in the case of Saraki who is the arrow-head of the group, he must have realized that the best that can happen to him in PDP is what he already has in APC – the Senate Presidency. On the flip side, defecting to PDP/CUPP does not guarantee him that position should APC win majority of the seats in the 9th Senate. So, he will want to only make noise and “shake table” for APC-led FG to go easy on his real sin (conniving with PDP to win the SP and trading the DSP position in the process) and alleged sin of arming deadly gang which was arrested for the killings during the Offa robbery of April. Others including Kwankwaso, Sheu Sanni, Hunkunyi et al are in worse situation than Saraki in the sense that they know winning an APC candidate anointed by PMB in their respective senatorial district is a herculean task. So, they’d reason it’s better to stay put and use threat of defection to get an automatic ticket to return in 2019.
In opposition, Saraki will most likely win his senatorial district and possibly win Kwara (60% to APC’s 40% in my opinion) for PDP but that’s as far as he can go because he has no influence or strong followership outside his state to dent PMB’s huge cult-like following in the North. He knows he can’t win any contest against APC’s Buhari in 2019 and so would not even dare to attempt it for the loss of his senate seat.
To many online warriors shouting Buhari is a tyrant and all the hogwash, those of us who really wanted change are not disappointed in his stance to bring anyone who has committed a crime to book irrespective of their political standing. Should the president say that Saraki should not be questioned for alleged sins because he is in APC or the SP? This was part of what brought Nigeria to where it is and you want us to continue in similar way? This was the way of PDP in the 16 years it ruled and we condemned it day and night but because of blind politicking, some of you want it to continue for some weird reason. Again, if Saraki is not questioned, you will turn around to say “all sins are forgiven once you join APC”. What do you want, you confused lot?
Lastly, if Saraki is not a coward using emotions and gullibility of his online supporters to curry sympathy, there can’t be a better time to defect with his group from APC to wherever they like. I mean, what is the point in remaining in a party you claim is not treating you fairly for 3.5years and counting? Is APC holding a gun to Saraki’s head (and his co-travelers) and preventing them from decamping?
Don’t tell me about APC/Oshiomole begging them. We all know that it’s natural for a party to want to hold on to their existing members while even trying to win more. So, nothing new in that. At the end of the day, NO ONE can prevent Saraki and co from decamping. I can’t wait for him to decamp honestly.
Na you wey he dey use your emotion play I pity.
Kingsley writes from Lagos
